2016 Cypriot legislative election explained

Country:Cyprus
Type:parliamentary
Previous Election:2011 Cypriot legislative election
Previous Year:2011
Next Election:2021 Cypriot legislative election
Next Year:2021
Seats For Election:56 of 80 seats in the House of Representatives
Election Date:22 May 2016
Leader1:Averof Neophytou
Leader Since1:2013
Party1:Democratic Rally
Last Election1:20 seats, 34.3%
Seats1:18
Seat Change1: 2
Swing1: 3.6pp
Popular Vote1:107,825
Percentage1:30.7%
Leader2:Andros Kyprianou
Leader Since2:2009
Party2:Progressive Party of Working People
Last Election2:19 seats, 32.7%
Seats2:16
Seat Change2: 3
Swing2: 7.0pp
Popular Vote2:90,204
Percentage2:25.7%
Leader3:Nikolas Papadopoulos
Leader Since3:2013
Party3:Democratic Party (Cyprus)
Last Election3:9 seats, 15.8%
Seats3:9
Seat Change3: 0
Swing3: 1.3pp
Popular Vote3:50,923
Percentage3:14.5%
Leader4:Marinos Sizopoulos
Leader Since4:2015
Party4:Movement for Social Democracy
Last Election4:5 seats, 8.9%
Seats4:3
Seat Change4: 2
Swing4: 2.7pp
Popular Vote4:21,732
Percentage4:6.2%
Leader5:Giorgos Lillikas
Leader Since5:2013
Party5:Citizens' Alliance (Cyprus)
Last Election5:Did not stand
Seats5:3
Seat Change5: 3
Swing5: 6.0pp
Popular Vote5:21,114
Percentage5:6.0%
Leader6:Eleni Theocharous
Leader Since6:2016
Party6:Solidarity Movement (Cyprus)
Last Election6:Did not stand
Seats6:3
Seat Change6: 1
Swing6: 5.2pp
Popular Vote6:18,424
Percentage6:5.2%
Leader7:George Perdikes
Leader Since7:2011
Party7:Movement of Ecologists — Citizens' Cooperation
Last Election7:1 seat, 2.2%
Seats7:2
Seat Change7: 1
Swing7: 2.6pp
Popular Vote7:16,909
Percentage7:4.8%
Leader8:Christos Christou
Leader Since8:2008
Party8:ELAM (Cyprus)
Last Election8:0 seats, 1.1%
Seats8:2
Seat Change8: 2
Swing8: 2.6pp
Popular Vote8:13,041
Percentage8:3.7%
Map Size:475px
President of the House of Representatives
Before Election:Yiannakis Omirou
Before Party:Movement for Social Democracy
After Election:Demetris Syllouris
After Party:Solidarity Movement (Cyprus)

Parliamentary elections were held in Cyprus on 22 May 2016 to elect 56 of the 80 Members of the House of Representatives.

Political system

See main article: Politics of Cyprus. The Republic of Cyprus is a unitary republic with a presidential system of government. The President of Cyprus, directly elected in the middle of the legislative term, is both head of state and head of government, presiding over the executive Council of Ministers. The multi-member proportional elections to the House of Representatives however accommodate a multi-party system, where the elected president's party usually joins forces with smaller parties to form a joint coalition government that usually adapts to parliamentary shifts after legislative elections.

Electoral system

See main article: Elections in Cyprus.

The 80 seats in the House of Representatives are elected from six multi-member constituencies, with the number of seats allocated according to the population of each area. Of the 80 seats, 56 are elected by Greek Cypriots and 24 by Turkish Cypriots. However, due to the partition of the island in 1974, the 24 Turkish Cypriot seats are unfilled and the House of Representatives has de facto had 56 seats since its enlargement in the 1980s.

The elections are held using open list proportional representation, with seats allocated using the Hare quota. Any remaining seats are allocated to lists that won at least one seat or parties that received at least 3.6% of the vote.[1] In the open list system, voters first select the list they want to vote for, and then select a number of candidates equal to a quarter of the number of seats in the constituency. Party leaders or other candidates heading coalitions are not required to receive preferential votes to be elected.[2] Although compulsory voting had not been formally abolished at the time the elections took place (it was abolished in 2017), the law had not been enforced for years.[3]

Background

2011

The previous legislative election took place on 22 May 2011. President Demetris Christofias of the communist Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL) had led a coalition consisting of his party as well as the centrist Democratic Party (DIKO) and the social-democratic Movement for Social Democracy (EDEK) since his election in 2008.

After three years in power, AKEL scored 32.7% in the 2011 legislative elections, narrowly behind the opposition center-right Democratic Rally, which polled 34.3% of votes. Meanwhile, AKEL's partners DIKO and EDEK scored 15.8% and 8.9% respectively. A mere two months after the legislative election, the Evangelos Florakis Naval Base explosion took place, triggering calls for President Christofias' resignation.

2013

Amidst widespread dissatisfaction and a deepening economic crisis, Christofias announced that he would not run for a second term in the presidential election in 2013.[4] Ultimately, Nicos Anastasiades of DISY emerged victorious in the presidential election, taking 45.5% of the vote, against 26.9% for the AKEL-backed Stavros Malas and the EDEK-backed Giorgos Lillikas. In the second round, Anastasiades captured 57.5% to 42.5% for Malas. The Anastasiades administration took office on 28 February 2013, comprising DISY, DIKO and the European Party (EVROKO). The Democrats later pulled out of the coalition, however.[5]

2014

Roughly a year into the presidency of Nicos Anastasiades, the Cypriot parties faced the electorate in European Parliament elections. Ahead of the election, DISY and EVROKO announced that they would participate in the election on a joint ticket; the social democrats in EDEK and the Ecological and Environmental Movement (KOP) also formed an electoral pact for the event. With the economic problems the country faced under Demetris Christofias' AKEL-led government fresh in the minds of voters, the party plummeted to 27.0% of the vote, a loss of 8.4% points. Meanwhile, the DISY-EVROKO pact garnered 37.8%. This election also served as the first electoral test of the Citizens' Alliance (SYPOL) party of former presidential candidate Giorgos Lillikas, which polled 6.8% but failed to win seats in the European Parliament. The decline of AKEL and the rise of anti-establishment parties continued into 2015 and 2016.[6]

2016

Mere months before the 2016 legislative election, ex-DISY MEP Eleni Theocharous launched a splinter party, in opposition to Anastasiades' approach to the Cyprus issue.[7] She advocated for tighter co-operation with other parties particularly DIKO and EDEK. The new party was dubbed the Solidarity Movement. On 11 March 2016, it was announced that EVROKO would merge into the new party, placing its candidates on its lists in the upcoming elections.[8]

Parties and leaders

PartyIdeologyLeader
Democratic Rally (DISY)Liberal conservatism, Christian democracyAverof Neophytou
Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL)Communism, Marxism-Leninism, Cypriot nationalismAndros Kyprianou
Democratic Party (DIKO)Greek Cypriot nationalism, CentrismNikolas Papadopoulos
Movement for Social Democracy (EDEK)Greek Cypriot nationalism, Social democracyMarinos Sizopoulos
Movement of Ecologists - Citizens' Cooperation (KOSP)Green politics, Social democracyGeorge Perdikes
National Popular Front (ELAM)UltranationalismChristos Christou
Citizens' Alliance (SYPOL)Populism, Social democracyGiorgos Lillikas
Solidarity Movement (KA)National conservatism, EuroscepticismEleni Theocharous

Electoral campaigns

A televised debate of DISY leader Averof Neophytou, AKEL leader Andros Kyprianou and DIKO leader Nicolas Papadopoulos on 18 May 2016 turned into a heated exchange on economy issues and the question of reunification. Papadopoulos claimed that "behind closed doors", AKEL was trying to resurrect the 2004 Annan plan that was turned down by the Greek side in a referendum. While Neophytou and Papadopoulos criticized AKEL's judgment of the economic situation ahead of the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, Kyprianou recalled his two rivals' assessments at that time. Back then in October 2008, Neophytou had expected things to go "very well", though "based on overconsumption", while Papadopoulos had gone even further off the mark stating: "Yes, our economy will be impacted, but certainly not our financial system, which is one of the most resilient in the world."[9]

Opinion polls

DatePolling FirmDISYAKELDIKOEDEKEVROKOKOPELAMSYPOLKAOthersLead
13 May 2016Symmetron / Marc31.826.013.75.7with KA5.23.36.15.62.65.8
5–11 May 2016Cypronetwork32.225.514.25.7with KA5.43.26.14.23.56.7
5–10 May 2016IMR35.829.213.15.1with KA4.42.25.15.10.06.6
4–7 May 2016PMR & C31.524.914.36.0with KA4.43.36.64.34.76.6
26 Apr–3 May 2016IMR31.726.613.76.3with KA4.82.06.76.32.05.1
14–20 Apr 2016IMR33.826.212.76.2with KA4.02.76.65.32.57.6
8–18 Apr 2016IMR35.125.413.46.7with KA4.52.26.04.52.29.7
16 April 2016Kathimerini34.724.014.16.1with KA5.32.97.33.81.810.7
11–16 Apr 2016PMR & C31.924.813.86.0with KA4.72.66.84.45.07.1
3 April 2016IMR37.027.811.15.6with KA3.71.97.43.71.89.2
14–19 Mar 2016PMR & C31.925.912.86.3with KA5.02.56.54.44.76.0
25 Feb–2 Mar 2016IMR33.125.510.05.51.74.12.86.46.64.37.6
15–19 Feb 2016PMR & C34.024.713.76.02.14.63.36.25.49.3
13–17 Jul 2015GPO33.130.812.57.21.53.01.87.82.32.3
22 MayElection 201134.332.715.88.93.92.21.11.11.6

Exit polls

Election day exit polls[10]
TV channelDISYAKELDIKOEDEKKOPKASYPOLELAM
CyBC29.5 – 32.526.5–29.512–145–74–54–75–73.5–4.5
ANT129.5 – 33.525.5–29.512.5 –14.55.3–6.73.3–4.73.8–5.24.5–5.73.5–4.5
MEGA30.5 – 33.526–2911.5–144.5–6.63.5–4.53.5–4.54.5–6.62.5–4.5
Sigma29 – 3424–2912–154–6.53.5–64.5–74.5–73–5.5

Results

By district


Constituency
DISYAKELDIKOEDEKCitizens' AllianceSolidarity MovementGreensELAMOthers
%%%%%%%%%
Nicosia35,86729.25629,28823.89516,32313.3138,3016.7717,4576.0816,9195.6419,0967.4224,2653.4815,0864.15065.50
Kyrenia5,19528.6024,69225.8313,51119.3307894.3401,1536.3506453.5509115.0105943.2706763.72065.57
Famagusta27,53838.24422,09830.6936,4809.0012,6633.7003,3594.6612,8884.0112,4643.4202,5963.6011,9292.68067.14
Larnaca10,44928.38210,81129.3625,77615.6922,2806.1902,0385.5402,0775.6401,0802.9301,2053.2701,1043.00067.94
Limassol21,87630.48317,89324.93411,53316.0723,0774.2915,1847.2215,2547.3212,6813.7402,4213.3701,8462.57066.09
Paphos6,90022.9815,42218.0617,30024.3214,62215.4011,9236.4106412.1406772.2601,9606.5305761.92072.31

Analysis and reception

The election had the lowest turnout for a legislative election in the history of the Republic of Cyprus. "General apathy with public affairs, but likewise frustration with the credit crunch and disappointment with politicians" was cited in the Cyprus Mail for the low turnout, whilst political analyst Hubert Faustmann cited "dissatisfaction of the public with the bigger parties" and "that parliamentary elections in Cyprus are not that important, given the weakness of the Cypriot parliament". AKEL was seen as the biggest loser of the election, possible reasons being cited as the party's failure to take up a "proactive" role and continued disillusionment with the Christofias administration. In contrast, an AKEL member, Irini Charalambidou, gained the highest number of votes for any candidate, following her stark critique of and fight against failing banks. The results were interpreted as a weakening of the front calling for a federal solution by the Turkish Cypriot press and political analyst Louis Igoumenides. Whilst the pro-solution parties, DISY and AKEL, still received a combined 56% of the votes against 40% obtained by anti-solution parties, in the case of a referendum the "yes" vote was expected by Igoumenides to be much lower, partly due to the refusal of fanatic voters of DISY and AKEL to collaborate.[11] [12]

In terms of economics, the Anastasiades government became dependent on smaller parties to pass important reforms. This was expected to impede the ability of the government to pass these reforms, economic analyst Fiona Mullen said "I think we can forget privatization altogether".[13] This was also the first time the far-right party ELAM entered the parliament. Anti-racist NGO KISA called upon political parties in the parliament to counter ELAM and stated its "concern over the number of absentee voters and the rightward drift of the electorate towards political parties that espouse racism and nationalism" and Turkish Cypriot daily Diyalog called the party "terrorist".[14] [12]

Cypriot electoral expert Yiannis Mavris said: "The electoral results herald a new political era for Cyprus. New small parties seem to be here to stay and will be exerting continuous pressure on traditional parties, which may find it difficult to win back their voters."[15]

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Electoral threshold at 3.6%. InCyprus. 24 May 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160502141911/http://in-cyprus.com/electoral-threshold-at-3-6/. 2 May 2016. dead.
  2. http://ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2081_B.htm Electoral system
  3. Web site: Government abolishes compulsory voting. 3 May 2017. Cyprus Mail. en-GB. 7 May 2019.
  4. Web site: Cyprus president says will not seek re-election. Michele Kambas. 14 May 2012. Reuters. 24 May 2016.
  5. Web site: DIKO decides to leave Cyprus government coalition. 24 May 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20170107231018/http://famagusta-gazette.com/diko-decides-to-leave-cyprus-government-coalition-p22474-69.htm. 7 January 2017. dead.
  6. Web site: Archived copy . 6 March 2016 . 10 March 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160310230902/http://paperroom.ipsa.org/papers/paper_11548.pdf . dead .
  7. Web site: Theocharous unveils Solidarity platform to 'save Republic'. 15 January 2016. Cyprus Mail. 24 May 2016.
  8. Web site: EVROKO to merge with Theocharous' Solidarity movement (Update). 11 March 2016. Cyprus Mail. 24 May 2016.
  9. News: Angelos Anastasiou . Election campaign heats up on economy issues . . 19 May 2016 . 23 May 2016.
  10. News: First exit polls indicate an eight-party House . . 22 May 2016 . 22 May 2016.
  11. Web site: Cyprus parliamentary vote puts far-right in parliament. Reuters. 23 May 2016.
  12. Web site: Hazou. Elias. Election outcome doesn't bode well for settlement, political observer says. Cyprus Mail. 23 May 2016. 23 May 2016.
  13. Web site: Cyprus's Anastasiades Sees Support Cut in Parliamentary Vote. Bloomberg News. 23 May 2016.
  14. Web site: KISA calls on parties to counter ELAM. Cyprus Weekly. 23 May 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160524121549/http://in-cyprus.com/kisa-calls-parties-counter-elam/. 24 May 2016. dead.
  15. News: News Analysis: Cypriot traditional parties count their losses in parliamentary election . . https://web.archive.org/web/20160524050722/http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-05/23/c_135382283.htm . dead . 24 May 2016 . 23 May 2016 . 24 May 2016.