See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.
| Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia |
| Country: | Virginia |
| Type: | Presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in Virginia |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in Virginia |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Joe Biden |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Image1: | Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Kamala Harris |
| Home State1: | California |
| Running Mate1: | Tim Walz |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Nominee2: | Donald Trump |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Home State2: | Florida |
| Running Mate2: | JD Vance |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Virginia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
The last Republican to win this state's electoral votes was fellow Southerner George W. Bush in 2004, and the last Republican to do so by double digits was the elder Bush in 1988. Formerly a Republican stronghold and a Southern state mostly in the Bible Belt, Democratic strength in the state has greatly increased over the last two decades and it is now considered a slightly to moderately blue state at the federal level. That is primarily due to the rapid growth and diversification of the Northern Virginia region, which includes some of the Washington metropolitan area's largest suburbs. The downstate metro areas of Hampton Roads and Greater Richmond are also major voting blocs for Democrats in Virginia. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by just over 10 points, becoming the first presidential Democrat to do so by double digits since landslide victor FDR in 1944.
Despite its Democratic lean at the federal level, Virginia could be considered a secondary battleground state and may be targeted by the GOP in 2024, mainly due to the 2021 state elections where Republicans won every statewide office being contested.[1] [2] Nonetheless, most analysts consider Democrats the favorites to hold the Old Dominion.[3] Some polls have labelled Virginia as a tossup state in the election cycle, and the GOP has placed a number of campaign offices throughout the Commonwealth in an attempt to continue recent momentum.
See main article: 2024 Virginia Democratic presidential primary. The Virginia Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state and all 11 of its congressional districts, securing 99 pledged delegates. Activist Marianne Williamson garnered 8% of the vote total, which was her second best performance on Super Tuesday after Oklahoma.
See main article: 2024 Virginia Republican presidential primary. The Virginia Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump defeated former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, attaining 42 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention in July. Trump performed best in southwest Virginia, while Haley's strength lay in Charlottesville, Albemarle County, the urban areas of Richmond and the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C.
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[4] | June 12, 2024 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[5] | April 26, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | June 29, 2023 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] | June 1, 2024 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[8] | August 18, 2024 | |
| align=left | CNN[9] | January 14, 2024 | |
| RCP[10] | August 15, 2024 | ||
| Silver Bulletin[11] | August 1, 2024 | ||
| The New York Times[12] | July 20, 2024 |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College | August 12–16, 2024 | 691 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 44% | 10% | |
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | |||||||
| Emerson College[13] | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% | |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[14] | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | |
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 42% | 12% | |||
| New York Times/Siena College[15] | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 44% | 8% | |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% | |||
| SoCal Research[16] | July 6–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 47% | 47% | 6% | |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Other / Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College | August 12–16, 2024 | 691 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 42% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 7% | |
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||||||
| New York Times/Siena College | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 38% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 11% | |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 39% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 10% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Other / Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 37% | 10% | 12% | |
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 38% | 10% | 9% | |||
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% | |||
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 50% | – | |||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | |||
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 42% | 11% | |||||
| New York Times/Siena College | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 44% | 10% | |||
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 45% | 7% | |||||
| SoCal Research | July 6–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 47% | 44% | 9% | |||
| Fox News[17] | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,107 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% | |||
| Roanoke College[18] | May 12–21, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 42% | 16% | |||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[19] | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 44% | 8% | |||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[20] | April 26–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 42% | 16% | |||
| Virginia Commonwealth University[21] | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 43% | 40% | 17% | |||
| Mason-Dixon[22] | December 15–19, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% | |||
| Roanoke College[23] | November 12–20, 2023 | 686 (A) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 44% | 8% | |||
| Change Research/Change Research/Future Majority (D)[24] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,437 (RV) | – | 47% | 42% | 11% | |||
| Research America Inc.[25] | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 37% | 26% | |||
| Roanoke College[26] | August 6–15, 2023 | 702 (A) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 42% | 17% | |||
| Virginia Commonwealth University[27] | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.4% | 43% | 40% | 17% | |||
| Roanoke College[28] | data-sort-value="2023-02-21" | May 14–23, 2023 | 678 (A) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 38% | 8% | ||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[29] | data-sort-value="2023-05-09" | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 48% | 41% | 11% | ||
| Roanoke College[30] | data-sort-value="2023-02-21" | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 43% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 7% | |||
| New York Times/Siena College | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 38% | 36% | 9% | 0% | 2% | 15% | |||
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 38% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 13% | |||||
| Virginia Commonwealth University[31] | June 24 – July 3, 2024 | 809 (A) | ± 4.8% | 36% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 13% | |||
| Fox News | data-sort-value="2024-06-06" | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,107 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 4% | ||
| Roanoke College | data-sort-value="2024-05-29" | May 12–21, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 10% | ||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | data-sort-value="2024-05-07" | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 38% | 11% | 10% | ||
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 39% | 10% | 9% | ||||
| co/efficient (R)[32] | data-sort-value="2024-06-13" | June 11–12, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 41% | 7% | 11% | |
| Mason-Dixon | December 15–19, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 36% | 14% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Ron DeSantis | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 42% | 39% | 19% | |||
| Research America Inc. | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 30% | 31% | |||
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 41% | 41% | 18% | |||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | data-sort-value="2023-05-09" | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% | ||
| Roanoke College | data-sort-value="2023-02-21" | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 48% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Glenn Youngkin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Glenn Youngkin | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research America Inc. | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 34% | 29% | |||
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 37% | 44% | 19% | |||
| Roanoke College | data-sort-value="2023-02-21" | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 39% | 55% | 6% |