See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.
| Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire |
| Country: | New Hampshire |
| Type: | Presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in New Hampshire |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| Image1: | Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Kamala Harris |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Home State1: | California |
| Running Mate1: | Tim Walz |
| Nominee2: | Donald Trump |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Home State2: | Florida |
| Running Mate2: | JD Vance |
| Map Size: | 300px |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Joe Biden |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Hampshire voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A rural New England state dominated by moderate voters, New Hampshire had backed Republicans in almost every presidential election since the party's formation up until 1988, except for nationwide landslides by Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916; Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936, 1940 and 1944; and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Since the early 1990s, however, the state has begun to lean toward the Democrats at the federal level, with Democrats carrying the state by single digits in every presidential election since 1992 with the exception of George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2000.
New Hampshire is a potential battleground state due to the closeness of the 2016 election and a concurrent gubernatorial election which is expected to be competitive. However, the state has shown a much more pronounced Democratic lean at the federal level in recent years, as New Hampshire's congressional delegation, which is currently all Democrats, won reelection by comfortable margins in the 2022 House and Senate elections in spite of the national Republican advantage that year. As such, most news organizations generally consider the state to be favoring Kamala Harris in 2024.[2]
New Hampshire has held the famous "first-in-the-nation" primary since 1920. Delegates are elected separately from a non-binding poll, which dates from 1952. Candidates qualify by presenting a check for $1000 to the Secretary of State's office by a certain date.
Primary elections for both the Democratic and Republican parties were held on January 23, 2024.[3]
See main article: 2024 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved a new 2024 primary calendar, in which the South Carolina Democratic primary would be held first on February 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on February 6. New Hampshire Republican governor Chris Sununu, Democratic senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen, and the state legislature vowed to continue holding the "first-in-the-nation" primary (as New Hampshire state law establishes)[4] and ultimately did set an earlier date of January 23.[5] [6]
Showing solidarity with the DNC, Biden declined to appear on the state's primary ballot.[7] Pro-Biden New Hampshire Democrats nevertheless launched a formal write-in campaign for him, but none of the state's delegates to the Democratic National Convention will still be binding.[8]
See main article: 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. The New Hampshire Republican primary was held on January 23, 2024, as the second contest of the Republican primaries, held about a week after the Iowa caucuses. 22 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated to candidates who received at least 10% of the statewide vote. The primary was won by Donald Trump, defeating Nikki Haley by eleven points.
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Cook Political Report[9] | July 9, 2024 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[10] | April 26, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | August 7, 2024 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | December 14, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[13] | August 5, 2024 | |
| align=left | CNN[14] | January 14, 2024 | |
| align=left | The Economist[15] | August 15, 2024 | |
| 538[16] | June 14, 2024 | ||
| RCP[17] | August 15, 2024 |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Undecided | Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | July 24 – August 19, 2024 | August 21, 2024 | 50.7% | 45.7% | 3.6% | Harris +5.0 | |||
| 270ToWin | July 22 – August 21, 2024 | August 21, 2024 | 48.0% | 44.3% | 7.7% | Harris +3.7 | |||
| Average | 49.4% | 45.0% | 5.6% | Harris +4.4 | |||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[18] | data-sort-value="2024-08-19" | August 15–19, 2024 | 2,048 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 52% | 47% | 1% | ||
| Emerson College[19] | July 26–28, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% | |||
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 48% | – | |||||
| University of New Hampshire[20] | data-sort-value="2024-07-25" | July 23–25, 2024 | 2,875 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 53% | 46% | 1% | ||
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | |||||||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[21] | data-sort-value="2021-12-12" | December 10–12, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% | ||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[22] | data-sort-value="2024-08-19" | August 15–19, 2024 | 2,048 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 50% | 43% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 3% | ||
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-07-28" | July 26–28, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 41% | 6% | 0% | 1% | – | 4% | ||
| Saint Anselm College[23] | data-sort-value="2024-07-25" | July 24–25, 2024 | 2,083 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 50% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2024-07-25" | July 23–25, 2024 | 2,875 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 49% | 43% | 4% | 8% | |
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | |||||||||
| NHJournal/Praecones Analytica[24] | data-sort-value="2024-07-21" | July 19–21, 2024 | 601 (V) | – | 39% | 40% | 21% | – | |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other/ Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[25] | data-sort-value="2024-05-23" | May 16–20, 2024 | 1,140 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 48% | – | ||
| Marist College[26] | data-sort-value="2024-01-19" | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 45% | 3% | ||
| Emerson College[27] | data-sort-value="2023-11-15" | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 42% | 11% | ||
| University of New Hampshire/CNN[28] | data-sort-value="2023-08-11" | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,108 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 52% | 40% | 8% | ||
| Emerson College[29] | data-sort-value="2023-08-11" | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 11% | ||
| Saint Anselm College[30] | data-sort-value="2023-06-23" | June 21–23, 2023 | 1,065 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% | ||
| Emerson College[31] | data-sort-value="2023-03-05" | March 3–5, 2023 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 38% | 20% | ||
| co/efficient[32] | data-sort-value="2023-01-26" | January 25–26, 2023 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 39% | 21% | ||
| Emerson College[33] | data-sort-value="2022-11-01" | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 41% | 14% | ||
| University of Massachusetts Lowell[34] | data-sort-value="2022-10-25" | October 14–25, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 49% | 43% | 8% | ||
| Emerson College[35] | data-sort-value="2022-10-19" | October 18–19, 2022 | 727 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 43% | 13% | ||
| Emerson College[36] | data-sort-value="2022-09-15" | September 14–15, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | 11% | ||
| University of New Hampshire[37] | data-sort-value="2022-06-20" | June 16–20, 2022 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 43% | 8% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | data-sort-value="2021-12-12" | December 10–12, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | – | ||
| Saint Anselm College[38] | data-sort-value="2021-05-10" | May 7–10, 2021 | 1,267 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 43% | – |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm College[39] | data-sort-value="2024-07-01" | June 28–29, 2024 | 1,746 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 42% | 44% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 8% | ||
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2024-05-23" | May 16–20, 2024 | 1,140 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 41% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | data-sort-value="2024-07-21" | July 19–21, 2024 | 601 (V) | – | 39% | 40% | 21% | – | ||
| NHJournal/Praecones Analytica[40] | data-sort-value="2024-05-21" | May 15–20, 2024 | 862 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 37% | 37% | 15% | 11% | ||
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[41] | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" | May 6–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 42% | 36% | 11% | 11% | ||
| Marist College | data-sort-value="2024-01-19" | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 41% | 12% | 3% | ||
| Saint Anselm College[42] | data-sort-value="2023-11-15" | December 18–19, 2023 | 1,711 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 39% | 8% | 4% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Nikki Haley | Other /Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College | data-sort-value="2024-01-19" | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 47% | 9% | |
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2023-11-15" | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 45% | 16% | |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Ron DeSantis | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College | data-sort-value="2024-01-19" | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% | |
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2023-11-15" | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 38% | – | 16% | |
| University of New Hampshire/CNN | data-sort-value="2023-08-11" | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,108 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 50% | 33% | 15% | 5% | |
| Saint Anselm College | data-sort-value="2023-06-23" | June 21–23, 2023 | 1,065 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 10 | 2% | |
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2023-03-05" | March 3–5, 2023 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 37% | 14% | 7% | |
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2022-06-20" | June 16–20, 2022 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy
Joe Biden vs. Tim Scott
Joe Biden vs. Chris Christie
Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
Joe Biden vs. Chris Sununu
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Chris Sununu | Other | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2023-03-05" | March 3–5, 2023 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 44% | 14% | 6% | ||
| co/efficient | data-sort-value="2023-01-26" | January 25–26, 2023 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 3.15% | 36% | 48% | – | 16% | ||
| Praecones Analytica[43] | data-sort-value="2022-04-16" | April 14–16, 2022 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 36% | 53% | – | 12% |
Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump
Elizabeth Warren vs. Donald Trump
Partisan clients