2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico explained

See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico
Country:New Mexico
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
College Voted:yes
Previous Election:2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico
Previous Year:2016
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Next Election:2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico
Next Year:2024
Turnout:68.67%
Last Update:Nov. 16, 2020, 9:00 PM
Time Zone:EST[1]
Image1:Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Joe Biden
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:Delaware
Running Mate1:Kamala Harris
Electoral Vote1:5
Popular Vote1:501,614
Percentage1:54.29%
Nominee2:Donald Trump
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Florida
Running Mate2:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:401,894
Percentage2:43.50%
President
Before Election:Donald Trump
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Joe Biden
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

New Mexico was won by Biden by a 10.79% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations making election predictions considered New Mexico as a state Biden would win, or a safe blue state. Biden scored victories in all of the state's three largest counties: Bernalillo, Doña Ana, and Santa Fe counties, home to Albuquerque, Las Cruces, and Santa Fe, respectively; all of them voted for Biden in margins greater than ten points.[4] Aggregate polling correctly showed Biden ahead by double-digits in the state.[5] [6]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, much of Biden's strength in New Mexico came from Latino voters, from whom he garnered 61% of the vote. These included 54% of Latinos of Mexican heritage and 70% of Spanish-Americans. Biden also carried a plurality of Caucasian/white voters in the state (49% to Trump's 48%).[7] He also won over Native Americans, garnering over 60% of the vote.[8] [9] 53% of voters believed the Trump administration was doing too little to help Native American reservations in New Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, and these voters broke for Biden by 75%–23%.

This was the first election since 1968 in which New Mexico voted more Republican than neighboring Colorado. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Colfax County, or Hidalgo County since 1920, when it was created.[10] [11] This was the first election since 1948 in which Valencia County voted for the losing candidate.[12] Although New Mexico is no longer classified as a critical swing state, Trump became the first ever Republican incumbent to consecutively lose New Mexico in an election and only the second ever U.S. president after Jimmy Carter to consecutively lose New Mexico in the state's history.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[13]

2020 New Mexico Republican presidential primary
CandidateVotes%Estimated
delegates
(incumbent)22
Uncommitted0
Total157,876100%22

Libertarian primary

See main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries.

Election Name:2020 New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary
Country:New Mexico
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Next Election:2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico#Libertarian primary
Next Year:2024
Election Date:June 2, 2020
Outgoing Members:NE
Candidate1:Jo Jorgensen
(nominee)
Color1:BA55D3
Home State1:South Carolina
Popular Vote1:520
Percentage1:33.12%
Candidate2:Uncommitted
Color2:000000
Home State2:N/A
Popular Vote2:330
Percentage2:21.02%
Candidate3:Lincoln Chafee
(withdrawn)
Color3:DC143C
Home State3:Wyoming
Popular Vote3:158
Percentage3:10.06%
Candidate4:Jacob Hornberger
(lost)
Color4:DAA521
Home State4:Virginia
Popular Vote4:154
Percentage4:9.81%
Candidate5:Adam Kokesh
(lost)
Color5:32CD32
Home State5:Indiana
Popular Vote5:124
Percentage5:7.90%
Candidate6:Sam Robb
(lost)
Color6:4B0082
Home State6:Pennsylvania
Popular Vote6:90
Percentage6:5.73%
Map Size:200px
New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary, June 2, 2020[14]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Jo Jorgensen (nominee)52033.12%
Uncommitted33021.02%
Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn)15810.06%
Jacob Hornberger (lost)1549.81%
Adam Kokesh (lost)1247.90%
Sam Robb (lost)905.73%
John Monds (lost)634.01%
Dan Behrman (lost)583.69%
Arvin Vohra (lost)392.48%
James Ogle (lost)342.17%
Total1,557100%

General election

Final predictions

SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report[15]
Inside Elections[16]
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17]
Politico[18]
RCP[19]
Niskanen[20]
CNN[21]
The Economist[22]
CBS News[23]
270towin[24]
ABC News[25]
NPR[26]
NBC News[27]
538[28]

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Joe
Biden
! class="unsortable"
Donald
Trump

Other/
Undecided
Margin
270 to Win[29] October 6 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202053.5%40.5%6.0%Biden +13.0-Real Clear Politics[30] August 26 – October 1, 2020October 21, 202053.9%42.1%7.5%Biden +11.7-->
FiveThirtyEight[31] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202053.8%42.3%3.9%Biden +11.5
Average53.7%41.4%4.9%Biden +12.3

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump

Joe
Biden
Jo
Jorgensen

Howie
Hawkins

OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,481 (LV)± 3.5%42%56%
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal[33] Oct 23–29, 20201,180 (LV)± 2.9%42%54%3%1%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20202,719 (LV)46%52%
GBAO Strategies/GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D)[34] Oct 14–17, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%41%54%
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report[35] Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020886 (LV)± 3.3%39%53%2%2%4%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20201,015 (LV)44%54%1%
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal[36] Aug 26 – Sep 2, 20201,123 (LV)± 2.9%39%54%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20201,087 (LV)43%56%2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 2020904 (LV)48%49%2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020506 (LV)50%49%1%
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report[37] Jun 12–13, 2020740 (V)± 3.6%39%53%8%
Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute[38] Apr 20–21, 20201,091 (RV)± 3.1%40%52%
Emerson College[39] Jan 3–6, 2020967 (RV)± 3.1%46%54%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Results

By county

CountyJoe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%
Bernalillo193,75761.01%116,13536.57%7,6982.42%77,62224.44%317,590
Catron59525.58%1,69873.00%331.42%-1,103-47.42%2,326
Chaves6,38128.43%15,65669.76%4061.81%-9,275-41.33%22,443
Cibola4,74553.30%3,97544.65%1832.05%7708.65%8,903
Colfax2,61143.40%3,27154.37%1342.23%-660-10.97%6,016
Curry4,30728.52%10,44469.16%3502.32%-6,137-40.64%15,101
De Baca23125.64%65672.81%141.55%-425-47.17%901
Dona Ana47,95758.03%32,80239.69%1,8822.28%15,15518.34%82,641
Eddy5,42423.36%17,45475.16%3441.48%-12,030-51.80%23,222
Grant7,59052.58%6,55345.40%2922.02%1,0377.18%14,435
Guadalupe1,23456.37%91741.89%381.74%31714.48%2,189
Harding17935.45%31963.17%71.38%-140-27.72%505
Hidalgo82341.69%1,12056.74%311.57%-297-15.05%1,974
Lea4,06119.41%16,53179.03%3261.56%-12,470-59.62%20,918
Lincoln3,19430.99%6,94267.36%1701.65%-3,748-36.37%10,306
Los Alamos7,55461.45%4,27834.80%4613.75%3,27626.65%12,293
Luna3,56343.97%4,40854.40%1321.63%-845-10.43%8,103
McKinley18,02968.07%7,80129.45%6562.48%10,22838.62%26,486
Mora1,74564.97%90333.62%381.41%84231.35%2,686
Otero8,48536.00%14,52161.61%5652.39%-6,036-25.61%23,571
Quay1,17030.21%2,63468.01%691.78%-1,464-37.80%3,873
Rio Arriba10,99066.09%5,40832.52%2301.39%5,58233.57%16,628
Roosevelt1,80227.27%4,63470.13%1722.60%-2,832-42.86%6,608
San Juan18,08334.58%32,87462.86%1,3372.56%-14,791-28.28%52,294
San Miguel7,88868.41%3,42129.67%2221.92%4,46738.74%11,531
Sandoval40,58853.01%34,17444.64%1,8002.35%6,4148.37%76,562
Santa Fe62,53076.05%18,32922.29%1,3681.66%44,20153.76%82,227
Sierra2,26538.10%3,54259.58%1382.32%-1,277-21.48%5,945
Socorro3,72251.98%3,25545.46%1831.86%4676.52%7,160
Taos13,12176.37%3,71521.62%3452.01%9,40654.75%17,181
Torrance2,34432.19%4,77265.54%1652.27%-2,428-33.35%7,281
Union38321.41%1,38877.59%181.00%-1,005-56.18%1,789
Valencia14,26344.19%17,36453.80%6502.01%-3,101-9.61%32,277
Total501,61454.29%401,89443.50%20,4572.21%99,72010.79%923,965

By congressional district

Biden won 2 out of 3 congressional districts.

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
37.4%60.2%Deb Haaland
54.9%43.1%Xochitl Torres Small
Yvette Herrell
40.1%57.7%Ben Ray Luján
Teresa Leger Fernandez

Analysis

The state used to be quite competitive, voting for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 with a margin of only 366 votes and Republican George W. Bush in 2004 by 5,988 votes. However, New Mexico has become a reliably blue state since then as Democrats have relied on Hispanic, Native American, and urban voters to deliver victories.[40]

On the other hand, Trump increased his popular vote percentage by 3.46%, earning 43.5% of the vote share and over 400,000 votes in total. Much of this improvement could be attributed to the fact that the Libertarian Party nominee in 2016 had been former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who earned 9.34% of the vote in his home state; Johnson did not run in 2020. That said, Trump's 43.5% represented not only an improvement on his own vote share in 2016, but also on those of future Utah Senator Mitt Romney in 2012 (42.84%) and Arizona Senator John McCain in 2008 (41.78%).

Aftermath

On December 14, 2020, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit against the New Mexico Secretary of State over the use of ballot drop-boxes for the 2020 presidential election. However, on January 11, 2021, five days after Congress certified the results for Joe Biden, the campaign dropped the lawsuit.[41] [42] Trump attorneys Mark Caruso and Michael Smith[43] cited “events that have transpired since the inception of this lawsuit” in a three-page motion as the reason for dropping the lawsuit. Despite the withdrawal, the motion still allows for revisiting these concerns in the future.[44]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: New Mexico Election Results 2020. The New York Times . November 3, 2020. November 17, 2020.
  2. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. https://web.archive.org/web/20180802011326/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html . 2018-08-02 . limited . live. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
  3. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. January 3, 2019.
  4. News: 2020-11-03. New Mexico Election Results. en-US. The New York Times. 2020-11-21. 0362-4331.
  5. Web site: New Mexico 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump. 2020-11-21. 270toWin.com.
  6. Web site: Bycoffe. Aaron. King. Ritchie. Koeze. Ella. Mehta. Dhrumhil. Mithani. Jasmine. Wolfe. Julia. November 21, 2020. New Mexico President: General Election Polls. November 21, 2020. FiveThirtyEight. en.
  7. News: 2020-11-03. New Mexico Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted. en-US. The New York Times. 2020-11-09. 0362-4331.
  8. Web site: Caldera. Camille. Fact check: There was strong Navajo support for Biden, but numbers cited in claim have changed. 2020-11-12. USA TODAY. en-US.
  9. Web site: 2020-11-05. Dzil Yizhiin stays true blue, defying national rural trend. 2020-11-09. Navajo Times. en-US.
  10. Web site: The Political Graveyard: Colfax County, N.M.. 2020-12-17. politicalgraveyard.com.
  11. Web site: The Political Graveyard: Hidalgo County, N.M.. 2022-06-06. politicalgraveyard.com.
  12. Web site: Chief. Dan Boyd Journal Capitol Bureau. Valencia County's 17 presidential elections streak comes to an end. 2020-12-17. www.abqjournal.com. November 23, 2020 . en-US.
  13. Web site: New Mexico Republican Delegation 2020. The Green Papers. June 3, 2020.
  14. Web site: 2020 Primary Election Results Statewide Summary . . June 7, 2021 . 12 . PDF . Link under "2020 Primary Election Results". July 28, 2020.
  15. Web site: 2020 POTUS Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en. 2019-05-21.
  16. Web site: POTUS Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. 2019-05-21.
  17. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. 2019-05-21.
  18. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
  19. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
  20. https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions
  21. News: David Chalian . Terence Burlij. Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020. 2020-06-16. CNN. June 11, 2020 .
  22. News: Forecasting the US elections . The Economist . July 7, 2020.
  23. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground Tracker. CBS News. July 12, 2020. July 13, 2020.
  24. Web site: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 270 to Win.
  25. Web site: ABC News Race Ratings. CBS News. July 24, 2020. July 24, 2020.
  26. News: 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes. 2020-08-03. NPR.org. August 3, 2020. en. Montanaro. Domenico.
  27. Web site: Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten. 2020-08-06. NBC News. August 6, 2020 . en.
  28. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020 . August 14, 2020.
  29. Web site: New Mexico 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin. 270toWin.com.
  30. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nm/new_mexico_trump_vs_biden-6993.html Real Clear Politics
  31. Web site: New Mexico : President: general election Polls. Ryan. Best. Aaron. Bycoffe. Ritchie. King. Dhrumil. Mehta. Anna. Wiederkehr. June 28, 2018. FiveThirtyEight.
  32. Web site: Candidate preference. www.tableau.com.
  33. Web site: Journal Poll: Biden comfortably ahead in NM. Dan. Boyd. October 31, 2020. Albuquerque Journal.
  34. Web site: GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D).
  35. Web site: Biden leads Trump by 14 points in NM - NM Political Report. October 6, 2020.
  36. Web site: Journal Poll: Biden holds sizable lead over Trump in NM. Dan. Boyd. September 5, 2020. Albuquerque Journal.
  37. Web site: Poll: Biden, Luján lead in New Mexico after primaries - NM Political Report. June 16, 2020.
  38. Web site: Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute. https://web.archive.org/web/20200425023354/https://majorityinstitute.com/latest/lujan-grisham-bests-trump-51-points-coronavirus-response. dead. April 25, 2020.
  39. Web site: Emerson Polling - New Mexico 2020: Democrats Strong in the Land of Enchantment, but Split Between Sanders and Biden for Nomination. emersonpolling.reportablenews.com.
  40. Web site: Silver. Nate. 2016-03-08. Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump. 2020-11-12. FiveThirtyEight. en-US.
  41. Web site: President Donald Trump's campaign drops New Mexico election lawsuit . . January 15, 2021 . January 21, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210121210921/https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/president-donald-trumps-campaign-drops-new-mexico-election-lawsuit/ar-BB1cFoli . dead .
  42. Web site: Complaint. UnAmericanBar. 2021-07-10.
  43. Web site: Complaint. UnAmericanBar. 2021-07-10.
  44. Web site: Trump asks to drop voting allegations in New Mexico, for now. Associated Press. April 20, 2021.