2020 United States presidential election in Montana explained

See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2020 United States presidential election in Montana
Country:Montana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
College Voted:yes
Previous Election:2016 United States presidential election in Montana
Previous Year:2016
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Next Election:2024 United States presidential election in Montana
Next Year:2024
Turnout:81.33% (of registered voters)[1]
Image1:Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Donald Trump
Party1:Montana Republican Party
Home State1:Florida
Running Mate1:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote1:3
Popular Vote1:343,602
Percentage1:56.92%
Nominee2:Joe Biden
Party2:Montana Democratic Party
Home State2:Delaware
Running Mate2:Kamala Harris
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:244,786
Percentage2:40.55%
President
Before Election:Donald Trump
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Joe Biden
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump and running mate Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Montana had three electoral votes in the Electoral College for the 2020 election.[3]

Trump won Montana 56.9% to 40.5%, a margin of 16.4%, down from the 20.4% margin he scored four years earlier. Prior to this election, most news organizations considered this a state Trump was very likely to win, or otherwise considered a likely red state. Montana has not been won by a Democrat since 1992, and has only been competitive in two elections since then, namely in 1996 and in 2008.

Despite his loss in the state, Biden was able to flip Blaine County, a bellwether that is home to Fort Belknap Indian Reservation. He also narrowed Trump's margins in 31 other counties, including the counties of Lewis and Clark (Helena, the state capital), and to a lesser extent Roosevelt, which holds most of Fort Peck Reservation. Additionally, Biden even widened Hillary Clinton's margin of victory in every other county that she won in 2016. This is the first time since their creation in 1919 and 1912, respectively, that a Democrat has won a presidential election without carrying Roosevelt or Hill county.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

See main article: 2020 Montana Republican presidential primary. Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[4]

Libertarian nominee

The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[5] September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[6] September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] July 14, 2020
Politico[8] September 8, 2020
RCP[9] August 3, 2020
Niskanen[10] July 26, 2020
CNN[11] August 3, 2020
The Economist[12] September 2, 2020
CBS News[13] August 16, 2020
270towin[14] August 2, 2020
ABC News[15] July 31, 2020
NPR[16] August 3, 2020
NBC News[17] August 6, 2020
538[18] November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Joe
Biden
! class="unsortable"
Donald
Trump

Other/
Undecided
Margin
270 to Win[19] October 22–28, 2020November 3, 202044.8%50.2%5.0%Trump +5.4-Real Clear Politics[20] September 14 – October 10, 2020October 12, 202043.7%52.3%4.0%Trump +8.6-->
FiveThirtyEight[21] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202045.4%49.8%4.8%Trump +4.4
Average45.1%50.0%4.9%Trump +4.9

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump

Joe
Biden
Jo
Jorgensen

OtherUndecided
Change Research[22] Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020920 (LV)± 3.5%50%45%2%1%1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[23] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,021 (LV)± 4%52%46%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20201,471 (LV)± 4.0%50%48%
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[24] Oct 26–27, 2020886 (LV)± 3.3%49%47%3%
Montana State University Billings[25] Oct 19–24, 2020546 (LV)± 4.2%52%45%1%2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[26] Oct 18–20, 2020758 (LV)± 4.4%49%43%3%2%3%
Strategies 360/NBCMT[27] Oct 15–20, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%51%43%3%4%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[28] Oct 15–18, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%50%46%2%4%0%
48%48%2%4%0%
52%44%2%4%0%
Public Policy Polling[29] Oct 9–10, 2020798 (V)± 3.5%52%46%-2%0%
Emerson College[30] Oct 4–7, 2020500 (LV)± 3.7%56%44%
Data For Progress (D)[31] Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020737 (LV)± 3.6%49%43%3%0%5%
Montana State University Bozeman[32] Sep 14 – Oct 2, 20201,607 (LV)± 3.9%51%44%4%2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 2020480 (LV)57%41%2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[33] Sep 14–16, 2020625 (LV)± 4.8%49%42%2%2%5%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP[34] Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%50%43%0%6%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 2020562 (LV)52%46%1%
Expedition Strategies/House Majority PAC[35] Aug 22–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%48%44%7%
Emerson College[36] Jul 31 – Aug 2, 2020584 (LV)± 4.0%54%46%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 2020527 (LV)53%44%3%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[37] Jul 23–24, 2020917 (V)50%45%5%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[38] Jul 11–16, 2020700 (LV)± 3.7%52%42%6%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[39] Jul 11–13, 2020873 (RV)± 4.2%49%45%-5%1%
Public Policy Polling/Election Twitter[40] Jul 9–10, 20201,224 (V)± 2.8%51%42%7%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020166 (LV)57%41%2%
University of Montana[41] Jun 17–26, 2020517 (RV)± 4.3%52%38%10%
Montana State University BozemanApr 10–27, 2020459 (LV)± 4.6%45%40%11%5%
The Progress Campaign (D)<--Spam-filtered link[42] -->Apr 14–21, 20201,712 (RV)± 4.6%51%42%7%
University of Montana[43] Feb 12–22, 2020498 (LV)± 4.4%56%34%10%
University of Montana[44] Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019303 (RV)± 5.6%54%47%

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Donald Trump vs. Steve Bullock

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
University of MontanaFeb 12–22, 2020498 (LV)± 4.4%56%34%9%
University of MontanaSep 26 – Oct 3, 2019303 (RV)± 5.6%54%46%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
University of MontanaFeb 12–22, 2020498 (LV)± 4.4%57%33%10%
University of MontanaSep 26 – Oct 3, 2019303 (RV)± 5.6%54%46%
Zogby Analytics[45] Aug 17–23, 2017403 (LV)± 4.9%45%39%17%

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

with Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Kasich, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Howard Schultz and Elizabeth Warren

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[48]

Results

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
%%%%
Beaverhead3,92369.30%1,60828.40%1302.30%2,31540.90%5,661
Big Horn2,20746.10%2,49152.04%891.86%-284-5.94%4,787
Blaine1,46947.11%1,58950.96%601.93%-120-3.85%3,118
Broadwater3,17377.45%83520.38%892.17%2,33857.07%4,097
Carbon4,46863.35%2,42134.33%1642.32%2,04729.02%7,053
Carter77589.70%748.56%151.74%70181.14%864
Cascade23,31558.46%15,45638.75%1,1142.79%7,85919.71%39,885
Chouteau1,89163.78%99133.42%832.80%90030.36%2,965
Custer4,20571.76%1,51425.84%1412.40%2,69145.92%5,860
Daniels79978.80%19519.23%201.97%60459.57%1,014
Dawson3,75877.89%96219.94%1052.17%2,79657.95%4,825
Deer Lodge2,18644.69%2,56252.38%1432.93%-376-7.69%4,891
Fallon1,37587.30%17210.92%281.78%1,20376.38%1,575
Fergus4,86974.83%1,49622.99%1422.18%3,37351.84%6,507
Flathead38,32163.93%20,27433.82%1,3432.25%18,04730.11%59,938
Gallatin31,69644.65%37,04452.18%2,2483.17%-5,348-7.53%70,988
Garfield76493.97%415.04%80.99%72388.93%813
Glacier1,88433.54%3,61064.27%1232.19%-1,726-30.73%5,617
Golden Valley41482.31%7815.51%112.18%33666.80%503
Granite1,41967.51%63830.35%452.14%78137.16%2,102
Hill3,95755.10%2,98141.51%2443.39%97613.59%7,182
Jefferson5,34565.57%2,62532.20%1812.23%2,72033.37%8,151
Judith Basin1,04077.38%27520.46%292.16%76556.92%1,344
Lake9,32256.07%6,91641.60%3882.33%2,40614.47%16,626
Lewis and Clark21,40950.64%19,74346.70%1,1212.66%1,6663.94%42,273
Liberty82175.81%24922.99%131.20%57252.82%1,083
Lincoln8,67273.81%2,83524.13%2422.06%5,83749.68%11,749
Madison4,19168.85%1,77129.09%1252.06%2,42039.76%6,087
McCone95684.75%15513.74%171.51%80171.01%1,128
Meagher83375.05%25823.24%191.71%57551.81%1,110
Mineral1,82871.32%68626.77%491.91%1,14244.55%2,563
Missoula26,34736.85%43,35760.64%1,7952.51%-17,010-23.79%71,499
Musselshell2,42384.10%41314.34%451.56%2,01069.76%2,881
Park6,02552.08%5,28045.64%2642.28%7456.44%11,569
Petroleum29885.63%3911.21%113.16%25974.42%348
Phillips1,93681.28%41617.46%301.26%1,52063.82%2,382
Pondera2,03167.81%90330.15%612.04%1,12837.66%2,995
Powder River97085.39%15413.56%121.05%81671.83%1,136
Powell2,35574.08%75223.66%722.26%1,60350.42%3,179
Prairie60381.05%12616.94%152.01%47764.11%744
Ravalli19,11467.05%8,76330.74%6302.21%10,35136.31%28,507
Richland4,80082.79%87515.09%1232.12%3,92567.70%5,798
Roosevelt1,99649.69%1,91047.55%1112.76%862.14%4,017
Rosebud2,48665.89%1,19931.78%882.33%1,28734.11%3,773
Sanders5,66074.25%1,82023.88%1431.87%3,84050.37%7,623
Sheridan1,40369.11%57428.28%532.61%82940.83%2,030
Silver Bow7,74541.51%10,39255.70%5212.79%-2,647-14.19%18,658
Stillwater4,46277.95%1,15620.20%1061.85%3,30657.75%5,724
Sweet Grass1,84075.22%54922.44%572.34%1,29152.78%2,446
Teton2,60870.89%1,00727.37%641.74%1,60143.52%3,679
Toole1,59675.32%46722.04%562.64%1,12953.28%2,119
Treasure37381.09%7816.96%91.95%29564.13%460
Valley3,13573.57%1,03024.17%962.26%2,10549.40%4,261
Wheatland82377.06%22521.07%201.87%59855.99%1,068
Wibaux51686.29%7712.88%50.83%43973.41%598
Yellowstone50,77260.57%30,67936.60%2,3702.83%20,09323.97%83,821
Totals343,60256.92%244,78640.55%15,2862.53%98,81616.37%603,674

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Montana has one at-large district that is the same as the statewide results.

Analysis

Montana, a sparsely-populated state straddling the Mountain and Plains West, has been a red state on the presidential level from 1968 on, voting solidly Republican in the close elections of 1968, 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2016. Since 1964, it has voted Democratic only in 1992, and, aside from that, has been competitive only in 1976, 1988,[49] 1996, and 2008. Montana typically votes substantially to the left of its neighbors in the Mountain West (Idaho and Wyoming) and, more recently, of its neighbors in the Plains West as well (North and South Dakota). Nevertheless, Trump was able to carry the state comfortably on Election Day, although his margin was reduced with respect to 2016.

Trump's principal bases of support were in Glacier Country, southwest Montana, central Montana, and southeast Montana, where he carried the population centers of Flathead County (Kalispell), Ravalli County, Cascade County (Great Falls), and Yellowstone County (Billings), in every case with a higher vote share than he received statewide. He also performed strongly in moderate-size, more rural counties in every region of the state, such as Lincoln and Sanders in Glacier Country, Beaverhead, Madison, and Jefferson in the southwest, Stillwater and Carbon in south central Montana, Fergus in central Montana, Custer in the southeast, and Richland, Dawson, and Valley in the Missouri River Country.

However, Biden was able to keep the margin smaller than in neighboring states by breaking 60% in Missoula County, the state's third-largest county and home to the University of Montana, and winning a majority in Gallatin County, the state's second-largest county and home to Montana State University. Gallatin had been a typically Republican county as recently as 2012, when it voted for Romney. He also held Trump to a 4% margin in Lewis and Clark County, the state's sixth-largest county and home to the state capital, Helena; George W. Bush had won this county twice by double digits. Biden also held onto the traditionally Democratic strongholds of heavily unionized Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, although he still fell short of the typical Democratic vote share in those counties; Trump became the first Republican to crack 40% in Silver Bow since 1956, and got the highest vote share of any Republican in Deer Lodge since 1956. In addition, Biden once again carried majority-Native American Glacier County; and furthered his margins in the city of Whitefish, located in heavily-Republican Flathead County.[50]

Biden flipped the swing county of Blaine; Trump flipped no counties.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, 49% of voters favored allowing more drilling and mining for natural resources on Montana's public lands; an overwhelming 87% of them backed Trump.[51]

In addition to Trump's victory in Montana, Republican candidates, riding on his coattails, won three other major statewide races, which were expected to be competitive. Incumbent Senator Steve Daines defeated term-limited Governor Steve Bullock in the Montana Senate race,[52] Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams in the Montana House race,[52] and Republican Representative Greg Gianforte defeated Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney in the governor's race.[52] This marked the first time since 2000 that Montana Republicans have held a trifecta.[53] Montana Republicans also won all five state executive branch seats including the State Auditor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction.[54]

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in Montana by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[55] [56]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% oftotal vote
Total vote40.5556.92100
Ideology
Liberals88817
Moderates643436
Conservatives79147
Party
Democrats96322
Republicans69237
Independents405541
Gender
Men336350
Women475250
Race/ethnicity
White395888
Non-white455012
Age
18–24 years old365710
25–29 years old25649
30–39 years old485015
40–49 years old286915
50–64 years old465425
65 and older445525
Sexual orientation
LGBT8
Not LGBT386092
Education
High school or less326526
Some college education385834
Associate degree316610
Bachelor's degree455418
Postgraduate degree603912
Region
Northern Rockies376117
Central Rockies544121
Southern Rockies445424
Northern Plains376018
Southern Plains257320
Area type
Urban475024
Suburban5
Rural385970
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago168944
Worse than four years ago16
About the same613739

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Montana Voter Turnout . 2024-02-07 . Montana SoS . en.
  2. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. https://web.archive.org/web/20180802011326/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html . 2018-08-02 . limited . live. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
  3. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. January 3, 2019.
  4. Web site: Montana Republican Delegation 2020. The Green Papers. June 3, 2020.
  5. Web site: 2020 POTUS Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en. 2019-05-21.
  6. Web site: POTUS Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. 2019-05-21.
  7. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. 2019-05-21.
  8. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
  9. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
  10. https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions
  11. Web site: David Chalian . Terence Burlij. Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020. 2020-06-16. CNN. June 11, 2020 .
  12. News: Forecasting the US elections . The Economist . July 7, 2020.
  13. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground Tracker. CBS News. July 12, 2020. July 13, 2020.
  14. Web site: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 270 to Win.
  15. Web site: ABC News Race Ratings. CBS News. July 24, 2020. July 24, 2020.
  16. Web site: 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes. 2020-08-03. NPR.org. August 3, 2020 . en. Montanaro . Domenico .
  17. Web site: Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten. 2020-08-06. NBC News. August 6, 2020 . en.
  18. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020 . August 14, 2020.
  19. Web site: Montana 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin. 270toWin.com.
  20. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mt/montana_trump_vs_biden-7196.html Real Clear Politics
  21. Web site: Montana : President: general election Polls. Ryan. Best. Aaron. Bycoffe. Ritchie. King. Dhrumil. Mehta. Anna. Wiederkehr. June 28, 2018. FiveThirtyEight.
  22. Web site: Final Public Polling — Election 2020. November 3, 2020. Change Research.
  23. Web site: Candidate preference. www.tableau.com.
  24. Web site: Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care.
  25. Web site: Montana State University Billings.
  26. Web site: Siena College/NYT Upshot.
  27. Web site: NBC Montana/Strategies 360 poll shows extremely tight Montana races. Maritsa. Georgiou. October 22, 2020. KECI.
  28. Web site: RMG Research/PoliticalIQ . October 24, 2020 . October 25, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201025103852/http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/24/mt-trump-50-biden-46/ . dead .
  29. Web site: Montana Senate Tight As Can Be. October 12, 2020. Public Policy Polling.
  30. Web site: Emerson Polling - Montana 2020: Republicans Hold Advantages in Presidential, US Senate and Governor Races. emersonpolling.reportablenews.com.
  31. Web site: Data For Progress (D).
  32. Web site: Current Surveys - Social Data Collection and Analysis Services (Social Data) | Montana State University. www.montana.edu.
  33. Web site: Siena College/NYT Upshot.
  34. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground State Surveys.
  35. Web site: Expedition Strategies/House Majority PAC. https://web.archive.org/web/20200902192957/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/MT-AL-poll-083120.pdf. September 2, 2020.
  36. Web site: Emerson Polling - Montana 2020: Trump Holds Strong as Biden Coalesces Support. emersonpolling.reportablenews.com.
  37. Web site: Public Policy Polling/AFSCME.
  38. Web site: Spry Strategies/American Principles Project.
  39. Web site: Civiqs/Daily Kos.
  40. Web site: Bullock Most Popular Montana Politician, Narrowly Leads Daines. July 13, 2020. Public Policy Polling.
  41. Web site: University of Montana.
  42. https://becd085d-5f24-4974-b9b5-73518197155a.filesusr.com/ugd/83fab9_ea0b6be5c6aa40798a1707ad61c90d59.pdf
  43. Web site: University of Montana.
  44. Web site: University of Montana.
  45. Web site: Zogby Analytics - The Zogby Poll: Trump approval/Trump Vs. Warren in 11 states. zogbyanalytics.com.
  46. Web site: Public Policy Polling.
  47. Web site: University of Montana.
  48. Web site: 2020 Presidential Electors and Alternates. Montana Secretary of State. December 6, 2020.
  49. News: 1988-10-18. For Dukakis, election math grows tight. Christian Science Monitor. 2021-01-04. 0882-7729.
  50. News: Park. Alice. Smart. Charlie. Taylor. Rumsey. Watkins. Miles. 2021-02-02. An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2020 Election. en-US. The New York Times. 2021-05-30. 0362-4331.
  51. News: 2020-11-03. Montana Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted. en-US. The New York Times. 2020-11-09. 0362-4331.
  52. News: Montana Election Results. The New York Times. November 3, 2020.
  53. News: Montana GOP leaders lay out legislative priorities. NBC Montana. Georgiou. Maritsa. November 5, 2020. November 21, 2020.
  54. Web site: 2018-02-22 . Official Election Results – Montana Secretary of State – Christi Jacobsen . Montana Secretary of State – Christi Jacobsen . 2023-05-03 . en-US.
  55. Web site: Montana 2020 President exit polls.. 2020-12-28. www.cnn.com. en.
  56. News: Montana Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted.. The New York Times . November 3, 2020 . 2020-12-28. en.