2021 London Assembly election explained

Election Name:2021 London Assembly election
Type:parliamentary
Previous Election:2016 London Assembly election
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2024 London Assembly election
Next Year:2024
Seats For Election:All 25 seats in the London Assembly
Majority Seats:13
Election Date:6 May 2021
1Blank:Constituency Vote
2Blank:% and swing
3Blank:Regional Vote
4Blank:% and swing
Turnout:42.7% 2.9%
Leader1:Len Duvall
Leaders Seat1:Greenwich and Lewisham
Party1:Labour
Colour1:e4003b
Last Election1:12 seats
Seats1:11
Seat Change1: 1
1Data1:1,083,215
2Data1:41.7%
1.8
3Data1:986,609
4Data1:38.1%
2.2
Leader2:Susan Hall
Leaders Seat2:Londonwide
Party2:Conservative
Colour2:0087DC
Last Election2:8 seats
Seats2:9
Seat Change2: 1
1Data2:833,021
2Data2:32.0%
0.9
3Data2:795,081
4Data2:30.7%
1.5
Leader4:Caroline Russell
Leaders Seat4:Londonwide
Party4:Green
Color4:6AB023
Last Election4:2 seats
Seats4:3
Seat Change4: 1
1Data4:336,840
2Data4:13.0%
3.9
3Data4:305,452
4Data4:11.8%
3.8
Leader5:Caroline Pidgeon
Leaders Seat5:Londonwide
Party5:Liberal Democrats
Color5:FAA61A
Last Election5:1 seat
Seats5:2
Seat Change5: 1
1Data5:266,595
2Data5:10.3%
2.8
3Data5:189,622
4Data5:7.3%
1.0

The 2021 London Assembly election was held on 6 May 2021 to elect the members of the London Assembly, alongside the 2021 London mayoral election. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally to be held on 7 May 2020, but on 13 March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[1] It was the sixth election since the Assembly was established in 2000. Due to the previous term being extended to 5 years, those elected would only serve a three-year term until the next election in 2024. The election was held on the same day in 2021 as other elections in the UK; the UK local elections, Scottish Parliament election, and Welsh Senedd election.

Five parties had featured in the fifth Assembly: London Labour led by Len Duvall; London Conservatives led by Gareth Bacon and latterly Susan Hall;[2] London Greens led by Caroline Russell; UKIP London represented by David Kurten (as part of the Brexit Alliance group led by its former leader Peter Whittle); and the London Liberal Democrats led by Caroline Pidgeon. This fell to four parties after the election, as UKIP lost both its seats.

Background

2016–2019

In the 2016 local elections, the Labour Party won the post of London Mayor, as well as 12 seats in the London Assembly elections. The party polled over 1 million votes, which represented the best-ever result for any political party in a London Assembly election. The Conservative Party were the runners-up, winning 8 seats, followed by the Green Party (2 seats), the UK Independence Party (2 seats) and the Liberal Democrats (1 seat). The Women's Equality Party, meanwhile, achieved 3.5% of the regional list vote, failing to reach the 5% minimum threshold required for representation.

The following year, in the snap election on 8 June 2017, Labour polled 55% of the popular vote in London, winning 49 of 73 London seats in the British House of Commons. In the 2018 borough elections across the capital, Labour saw their best result in over 45 years, winning 47% of the vote. Both the Liberal Democrats and the Green party also gained seats across London.

UKIP Assembly Member Peter Whittle left the party in December 2018. He and the remaining UKIP Assembly Member David Kurten formed their own Brexit Alliance group on the Assembly.[3] Kurten subsequently also left UKIP.[4]

2019 elections

In 2019, London was involved in two nationwide elections.

In the May 2019 European Parliament elections, the Liberal Democrats came first in London; winning the most votes in the London region with 27% and gaining three MEPs, their best result in the party's history. The Labour Party came second, with 24% of the vote, losing two seats.[5] The Brexit Party gained two MEPs and Greens won 12.5% of the vote, holding their one seat. The Conservative Party failed to get a single MEP elected in London for the first time in the history of the party.

In the general election at the end of 2019, there was no net change in the number of seats for each party, although four constituencies in London changed hands. Across London, Labour comfortably won the most seats.[6] [7] Two members of the London Assembly were elected to Parliament: the Conservative group leader Gareth Bacon and Labour member Florence Eshalomi. Susan Hall replaced Bacon as Conservative group leader, and both Bacon and Eshalomi announced that they would not seek re-election at the 2020 London Assembly election.[8]

Electoral system

The members of the Assembly are elected through a combination of both first past the post as well as closed list proportional representation; this system is commonly referred to as the additional member system. 14 members are elected in single member constituencies with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes becoming the Assembly Member for that constituency. An additional 11 members are also elected from the whole of London — with parties creating lists of up to 25 candidates — for a party to be included it needs to attain at least 5% of the vote across London. This process divides the remaining seats proportionally to the vote share of the parties with the use of the modified D'Hondt method allocating the seats. This system ensures proportionality with the 11 additional members being allocated in a corrective manner.[9] [10]

Campaign

The London Labour Party changed its selection process for assembly members so that party members select new candidates.[11] [12] The party started an investigation into a dispute over a "trigger ballot" organised by Momentum members to deselect Florence Eshalomi, Assembly Member for Lambeth and Southwark.[13] [14]

The Conservatives intend to stand candidates. Their constituency candidate for the North East, Ben Seifert, stood down and joined the Lib Dems in 2019.[15]

Nominations for the Green Party's list candidates closed in January 2019. Their final list was headed by their two current Assembly Members, Sian Berry (also the mayoral candidate) and Caroline Russell. The other three individuals who sought the mayoral nomination are also all Assembly candidates: Shahrar Ali (list candidate in 2016), Peter Underwood and former Liberal Democrat Zack Polanski.[16] Other candidates include Benali Hamdache (list candidate in 2016; sought to be the Green mayoral candidate in 2016, losing to Berry).[17]

The Liberal Democrats announced a shortlist of 15 people to be list candidates. These were voted on by the party membership, with the results announced in late November 2018.[18] [19] The candidate list was reshuffled in May 2019 following the withdrawal of Lucy Salek, originally placed third on the list.

Candidates

Constituency candidates need to submit a deposit of £1,000, which is returned if they get 5% of the vote. A London-wide list requires a deposit of £5,000, returnable if the list gets 2.5% of the vote.[20]

Constituency candidates

ConstituencyLabour[21] ConservativeGreen[22] Lib Dems[23] Reform UKOthers[24]
color:white; width:120px;
Barnet & CamdenAnne Clarke
(75,180, 1st)
Roberto Weeden-Sanz
(62,178, 2nd)
Kirsten de Keyser
(22,180, 3rd)
Marisha Ray
(14,172, 4th)
Mark Simpson
(4,107, 5th)
Bexley & BromleyStefano Borella
(47,389, 2nd)
Peter Fortune[25]
(97,966, 1st)
Mary Ion
(21,600, 3rd)
Alan Tweddle
(13,305, 4th)
Michael Pastor
(5,861, 5th)
Brent & HarrowKrupesh Hirani
(77,782, 1st)
Molly Samuel-Leport
(56,560, 2nd)
Emma Wallace
(17,472, 3rd)
Anton Georgiou
(14,783, 4th)
Ian Price
(3,916, 5th)
City & EastUnmesh Desai
(125,025, 1st)
Nick Vandyke
(46,718, 2nd)
Tim Kiely
(25,596, 3rd)
Richard Flowers
(14,136, 4th)
David Bull
(9,060, 5th)
Croydon & SuttonPatsy Cummings
(56,975, 2nd)
Neil Garratt
(75,246, 1st)
Peter Underwood
(18,069, 4th)
Claire Bonham
(26,258, 3rd)
Robert Poll
(3,190, 5th)
Renos Sampson
(Let London Live)
(2,021, 6th)
Ealing & HillingdonOnkar Sahota
(85,216, 1st)
Gregory Stafford
(76,974, 2nd)
Marijn van de Geer
(22,620, 3rd)
Hussain Khan
(16,435, 4th)
Anthony Goodwin
(7,415, 5th)
Enfield & HaringeyJoanne McCartney
(81,620, 1st)
Lee David-Sanders
(43,626, 2nd)
Jarelle Francis
(21,921, 3rd)
Dawn Barnes
(17,363, 4th)
Deborah Cairns
(3,284, 5th)
Pamela Anne Holmes (Ind)
(1,020, 6th)
Greenwich & LewishamLen Duvall
(82,048, 1st)
Charlie Davis
(38,889, 2nd)
Rosamund Kissi-Debrah
(30,808, 3rd)
Chris Annous
(12,744, 4th)
Edward Apostolides
(3,689, 5th)
Tan Bui (Ind)
(1,851, 6th)
Havering & RedbridgeJudith Garfield
(61,941, 2nd)
Keith Prince
(77,268, 1st)
Melanie Collins
(13,685, 3rd)
Thomas Clarke
(8,150, 4th)
Richard Tice
(5,143, 5th)
Andy Walker (TUSC)
(1,856, 6th)
Lambeth & SouthwarkMarina Ahmad
(91,949, 1st)
Hannah Ginnett
(30,855, 3rd)
Claire Sheppard
(36,933, 2nd)
Florence Cyrot
(20,920, 4th)
John Cronin
(3,917, 5th)
April Ashley (TUSC)
(2,919, 6th)
Merton & WandsworthLeonie Cooper
(75,468, 1st)
Louise Calland
(60,968, 2nd)
Pippa Maslin
(22,793, 3rd)
Sue Wixley
(18,818, 4th)
Roger Gravett
(3,080, 5th)
North EastSem Moema
(112,739, 1st)
Emma Best
(41,398, 3rd)
Caroline Russell
(43,601, 2nd)
Kate Pothalingam
(14,827, 4th)
Alex Wilson
(4,251, 5th)
Nancy Taaffe (TUSC)
(3,236, 6th)
South WestCandice Atterton
(56,945, 3rd)
Nicholas Rogers
(69,212, 1st)
Andrée Frieze
(23,135, 4th)
Gareth Roberts
(61,222, 2nd)
Dominique Day
(3,396, 5th)
Sylvia Da Barca
(Let London Live)
(2,836, 6th)
West CentralRita Begum
(52,938, 2nd)
Tony Devenish
(55,163, 1st)
Zack Polanski
(16,427, 3rd)
Ted Townsend
(13,462, 4th)
Saradhi Rajan
(1,954, 6th)
Heiko Bernard Khoo
(Let London Live)
(1,977, 5th)
Source: London Elects

London-wide list candidates

Assembly members not standing for re-election

Opinion polls

Constituency

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
LabConGreenLib DemOthersLead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
YouGovN/A1,14143%30%13%9%13%
YouGovQueen Mary University of London1,19246%29%8%12%17%
YouGovQueen Mary University of London1,19250%30%9%8%20%
YouGovQueen Mary University of London1,00247%31%9%11%16%
2016 Assembly election43.5%31.1%9.1%7.5%8.8%12.4%

London wide vote

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
LabConGreenLib DemOthersLead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
YouGovN/A1,14141%31%15%8%10%
YouGovQueen Mary University of London1,19244%29%11%11%15%
YouGovQueen Mary University of London1,19249%29%10%7%17%
YouGovQueen Mary University of London1,00245%29%12%10%16%
2016 Assembly election40.3%29.2%8.0%6.3%16.2%11.1%

Results

Analysis

In the regional vote, the Greens saw the largest vote increase, up 3.8 percentage points to gain 1 seat, while UKIP suffered the largest fall - down 5.4 percentage points and losing both their seats.

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Local elections postponed for a year over coronavirus . 2020-03-13 . BBC News . en-GB . 2020-03-13.
  2. GLAConservative. 1206926026682634240. 17 December 2019. We're pleased to announce that @Councillorsuzie is our new leader.
    "As Sadiq Khan's unsuccessful mayoralty draws to a close, we will champion a new path for London." .
  3. Web site: Ukip London Assembly members form new Brexit Alliance group amid Tommy Robinson chaos . Sophia . Sleigh . Evening Standard . 2018-12-13 . 2020-02-29.
  4. Web site: David Kurten announces run for Mayor of London . Mathewson . Jessie . Times Series . 2020-01-28 . 2020-02-29.
  5. News: Lib Dems top London European vote. 2019-05-27. 2019-05-30. en-GB.
  6. News: London still a 'Labour city' after night of few changes. Grierson . Jamie . 2019-12-13. The Guardian. 2019-12-23. 0261-3077.
  7. Web site: General Election 2019: As it happened in London. BBC News. en-gb. 2019-12-23.
  8. Web site: New London MPs will step down from City Hall roles in May. East London and West Essex Guardian Series. en. 2019-12-26.
  9. Web site: London Mayor and Assembly . 2018-09-24. Your Vote Matters . 2019-06-09.
  10. Web site: The Voting Systems. London Elects. 9 June 2019. 11 May 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150511102331/http://www.londonelects.org.uk/download/file/fid/376. dead.
  11. Web site: Labour London assembly members face reselection fight . Jessica Elgot . The Guardian . 5 November 2018 . 5 February 2019.
  12. Web site: Momentum bids to push Sadiq Khan manifesto to Left . Sophia Sleigh . . 16 March 2019 . 17 March 2019.
  13. Web site: Labour accused of London Assembly deselection 'stitch-up' . 30 April 2019.
  14. Web site: Probe into London Labour 'deselection plot' . 1 May 2019.
  15. Web site: Conservative London Assembly candidate quits over 'direction the party is taking' . OnLondon . 2019-09-08 . 2020-02-29.
  16. Web site: New year, new structures and new policies - Green news round up week 1 . Bright-green.org . 2019-01-06 . 2020-02-29.
  17. Web site: Green Party reveals full list of runners for London Mayoral and Assembly spots | the Green Party.
  18. Web site: Lib Dem shortlist for London Mayor and GLA list published . Markpack.org.uk . 17 October 2018. 2020-02-29.
  19. Web site: Lib Dems announce results for London Assembly list selection . Markpack.org.uk . 21 November 2018. 2020-02-29.
  20. Web site: Nominations. London Elects.
  21. Web site: Corbynsceptics score victories in London Assembly candidate selections. Chappell. Elliot. Rodgers. Sienna. 2020-02-20. LabourList. en-GB. 2020-02-21.
  22. Web site: Elections . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20200221161836/https://london.greenparty.org.uk/elections/ . 2020-02-21 . 2020-02-21 . london.greenparty.org.uk.
  23. Web site: Full set of Liberal Democrat candidates for London Assembly unveiled. 2019-06-09. Mark Pack. en-GB. 2020-02-21.
  24. Web site: London Assembly elections (Constituencies). Democracy Club Candidates. en-GB. 2020-04-01.
  25. 1235701959027392514 . Suraj_Sharma . The Bexley & Bromley GLA candidate is @PeterTFortune . That was the toughest selection event I've ever seen. 4 absolutely amazing candidates and a tough tough decision. Well fought @nicoladykes @ScottPattenden @LT_FRENCH . Suraj Sharma . 6 Mar 2020 . 20 Apr 2021 . en .
  26. News: Jennette Arnold announces she won't stand for re-election to London Assembly. Cumiskey. Lucas. Islington Gazette. 7 April 2020. 16 August 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190816105125/https://www.islingtongazette.co.uk/news/jennette-arnold-obe-announces-she-won-t-stand-for-london-assembly-1-5857263. dead. Archant Community Media. 18 January 2019.
  27. News: New London MPs will step down from City Hall roles in May. East London and West Essex Guardian Series. 23 December 2019. Newsquest Media Group. Jessie. Mathewson.
  28. Web site: Rodgers . Sienna . Labour First reveal slate of candidates for London Assembly selection race . LabourList . 5 February 2020 . 27 March 2020.
  29. News: Andrew Dismore to step down as London Assembly member. Osley. Richard. New Journal Enterprises. 11 January 2019. Camden New Journal.
  30. News: Labour selects Krupesh Hirani for Brent and Harrow seat in upcoming London election . 23 February 2020 . Eastern Eye . 21 February 2020. Garavi Gujurat Publications.